President Stubb: Given that I’m sitting here next to you, [President Zelenskyy], this is more of a personal address than anything else. You see, I think we in Finland understand exactly what you’re going through.
We have 1,340 km of border with Russia. In November 1939, Russia attacked us completely unprovoked. We have fought two existential wars against Russia. The first one was the Winter War. It lasted only 105 days and we were able to hold the line. The second one was the War of Continuation, which lasted pretty much 1,100 days.
And that’s what you’ve been going through right now. Essentially, for me, this war is about the existence of nationhood in Ukraine, and that nationhood is based on a triangle. And that triangle is something that we thought would be respected ever since the end of World War Two, and that is independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Now, in World War II, Finland had to accept a peace with Stalin. And I’m sure we’re going to have to accept a peace with Putin. But the peace that we accepted had only one out of the three statehood principles. Independence.
We were the only country bordering the Soviet Union that was able to retain our true independence, but we lost our sovereignty. You know, we couldn’t decide which clubs we wanted to join. We were able to join the EU only in 1995, when the Soviet Union had collapsed. And we lost 10 per cent of our territory, including the areas where my grandparents were born and where my father was born. Now, the only reason I’m saying this is that the support that you will see from the Finnish public, and I think from all around this table, is the support of identity and historical experience.
Now, my big point is that there seems to be some misunderstanding about what is going on here. Russia obviously started this war, but remember that it began its acquisition of territory and spheres of interest already in 2008 by attacking Georgia, and then in 2014 by annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
We are now here to commemorate the third anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale war. But the war has been going on for pretty much 11 years, ever since 2014. A lot of people don’t understand that this is not only about Ukraine, but this is also about Europe. This is also about the United States. This is also about international law, and at the end of the day, it’s about the world order.
So, if we now allow Russia to do what it wants to do, in other words, stop the existence of a Ukrainian state, then it’s not only Ukraine that has lost, it’s Europe that has lost, it’s the West that has lost, and also the United States that has lost.
And for those who doubt this, let me say one thing very clearly. You cannot trust Putin. You cannot make a deal with Putin, because that basically means a deal also with China. I also say that for those who doubt, the only way in which Ukraine is going to fully win this war is that we continue the support that we have given you from the beginning. And I also say that if Russia gets what it wants now, trust me, it’s not going to stop with Ukraine.
We know that Putin will continue because his mind is one of imperialism and spheres of interest. So self-evidently, Finland will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. We’re the fifth biggest donor [measured by] GDP per capita.
Let me finish off, however, by saying that I think in the past two weeks we’ve been sort of . . . a little bit lost.
The new American administration has come in, and we have heard conflicting messages. I believe that we need to take the initiative back. And by that, I mean to say that there needs to be something concrete on the table. So, let me propose today something that I’ve spoken with you about and with many around the table. It’s not a peace plan, but it’s a sketch of a process. And that process, in my mind, goes very simply in three phases.
The first phase is before the actual ceasefire. This is the phase when we put maximum pressure on Russia, including sanctions, including using the frozen assets, and, of course, including continuing the military support for Ukraine.
This is also the time when I think European leaders need to seriously talk about security arrangements. And of course, the lead comes from Ukraine. You have the biggest land force and most experienced land force in Europe. But there needs to be support from Europe and the backstop needs to come from the United States. All of this needs to be settled before a ceasefire is brokered, whether that’s Easter or whenever, we don’t know.
The second phase is the ceasefire phase, and the ceasefire basically means that there’s a contact line, probably monitoring thereof. But it also means that two things are put into place.
First is a negotiation on the actual agenda and modalities of the peace process. Because there is no peace process, there is no agenda, there are no modalities. And the second one is, of course, confidence-building measures, which were mentioned here a little bit earlier. Exchange of prisoners, returning the kidnapped children, etc., etc. This is the second phase.
Then only begins the third phase, and we are far, far, far from it. And that is the actual peace process. That’s when there is conversation about territory. That’s when there is conversation about reconstruction, and that’s when there is conversation about unraveling the sanctions.
Having said all of that – very conditional, by the way – I think we need to make clear to the Russians and everyone else that there are a few things that are completely off the table in these negotiations.
One is EU membership. It is not Russia who decides on EU membership. It is the European Union who does that. Two is NATO. It is not Russia that decides on NATO membership. It is the Alliance itself. Three is Ukrainian defence. It is not Russia that decides on what Ukraine has by its border, when, where, and how. And four: European security arrangements . . . or order. It’s not Russia that decides on that. We already have a European security order and should stick to it.
So those are off the table. And let me just finish off . . . because I do think this is . . . such an important day . . . when I was watching all the colleagues on Maidan Square . . . and the rest of it. I do think this is a day when we have to honour the fallen Ukrainian heroes. I also believe that this is a day when we have to face the fact that Putin has lost this war, in the sense that we will see a European Ukraine. We will see eventually Ukraine in NATO. We’ve seen a unified European Union and hopefully a stronger transatlantic alliance in the long run. And on a day like this, I think it’s time to pave the way for a plan for Ukrainian victory.
Slava Ukraini.
This is a transcription of the President’s address. Please check against delivery.
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